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 · Freight market updates

Monthly Executive Freight Update

Stay ahead of month-to-month market volatility with Uber Freight's Monthly Executive Freight Update. Get timely, actionable insights on rate movements, fuel trends, and cross-border network capacity to keep your logistics operations agile.

Vertical pulse: Actionable insights for your industry

Market pulse

Diesel prices remain high, but they’re not the only cost driver

  • October diesel held at $6.25/gal, keeping fuel surcharges elevated at 84¢/mi.

  • Spot dry van rates rose 2.8% MoM, while contract rates grew 1.5–1.7% MoM

  • LTL PPI surged 4.2% MoM to an all-time high (+19.8% YoY)

  • All-in intermodal rates are running ~20% higher YoY 

Routing guides stabilized as contract rates increased

  • First Tender Acceptance rose to 79% in October, up from 78% in September 

  • Routing Guide Compliance edged up to 86%, up from 85%.

Three line charts of truckload spot and contract rates per mile for van, reefer and flatbed, 2020 to late 2026, with spot rate year-over-year bars. All three spot rates surged in 2026 after a long 2023–2025 slump; contract rates climbed to new highs. As of Oct 26, spot rates are up 33.1% (van), 31.6% (reefer) and 32.5% (flatbed) YoY, while contract rates rose 21.8%, 18.7% and 20.4% YoY, with week-over-week contract gains of 0.4% to 1.5%.

Capacity is returning, signaling 2027 stability

  • September sleeper tractor sales jumped 25.7% MoM (+64% YoY)

  • Trailer orders surged across van (+78%), flatbed (74%), and reefer (104%).

  • Equipment inflow signals meaningful supply expansion and rate stability in 2027.

Three line charts from ACT Research compare 2022–2026 monthly trends for sleeper tractor sales, sleeper tractor orders and van trailer orders. The 2026 lines climb sharply into Q3: sleeper sales reach about 10,600 (MoM Sep 2026 +25.7%, YoY YTD +5.1%), sleeper orders rise to about 7,800 (MoM +51.4%, YoY YTD +118.3%), and van trailer orders hit about 28,000 (MoM +78.2%, YoY YTD +91.3%), signaling returning capacity.

What to expect for the rest of peak season and early 2027

Severe spot market cost premiums:

  • Fuel surcharges alongside constrained supply will drive sharp spot spikes across FTL and intermodal in December as holiday grocery and retail volumes peak, mirroring the tightness observed ahead of July 4.

  • Uncommitted freight falling outside primary routing guides will incur heavy cost penalties.

Temporary service degradation:

  • Tender rejections will surge in December, leading carriers to reject non-contracted, short-notice, or inconsistent freight.

  • Elevated highway rates will accelerate diversion to intermodal networks, driving up rail dwell times, slowing equipment turnarounds at key hubs, and narrowing the truckload-to-rail spread.

Beyond peak season:

  • Aside from seasonal fluctuations, spot volatility is expected to stabilize in 2027 around current levels—establishing a higher floor than the past three years. 

  • Spot rates are projected to grow by 7% YoY in 2026, primarily concentrated in Q1, while contract rates are expected to increase by 12.5% as expired contracts are renegotiated at higher rates.

  • Carriers will leverage current diesel costs and tight capacity to push baseline contract rates upward as they reset to match elevated spot pricing.

Line and bar chart of dry van national average linehaul spot rate per mile, 2020–2028 (source: DAT, Uber Freight analysis). Spot peaked near $2.95 in early 2022, fell to about $1.65 in 2023, then surged to about $2.60 in 2026. October and November 2026 forecasts show spot fluctuating seasonally around $2.40–$2.55 through 2027, with contract rising to about $2.55. Full-year 2027 vs 2026: spot +7.1%, contract +12.5%.

Protect your network and manage cost inflation with proactive strategies

  • Run targeted mini-bids on broken lanes: Focus immediate procurement on weekly or monthly mini-bids instead of network-wide annual RFPs, targeting underperforming lanes to restore routing guide integrity before peak season. Space mini-bids to avoid carrier bid fatigue.

  • Secure core contract rates immediately: Lock in primary carrier volume commitments now on critical high-density lanes to protect capacity through year-end.

  • Dynamically re-evaluate modal mix: Benchmark truckload cost and service against intermodal to ensure freight moves on the most cost-efficient mode without sacrificing service.

  • Adopt a hybrid cross-border transload model: Transition away from pure direct-trailer border crossings by integrating strategic cross-dock transloading facilities, eliminating border bottlenecks and freeing up constrained domestic trailer capacity.

Sources

  • American Oil & Gas Reporter — Daily Commodity Futures & Cash Crude Market Analytics[2].

  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — Weekly On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices (Midwest PADD2 & National)[11].

  • Supply Chain, Logistics, and Trucking Media and News - FreightWaves — SONAR Market Updates, Reefer Rejections & Cleo OTIF Failure Report[3].

  • The Freight Economist | Uber Freight — Weekly Market Update: Spot Rates, Contract Rates, Intermodal vs. LTL Pricing & Fuel Surcharges[4][8].

  • UberFreight_Weekly Spot Rate Index 2026 - W43.pptx — National & Regional Rate Index Benchmarks (Week 43)[5].