Nov 4, 2026 · Freight market updates

The Freight Economist

Weekly market update

The Freight Economist is back—now weekly—with the data-driven market intelligence your business needs to stay competitive. Read on for a breakdown of shifting freight rates and upcoming market outlooks.

Mazen Danaf

Principal Applied Scientist - Data Science & Marketplace

Truckload spot rates fell last week for van and reefer

Truckload spot rates excluding fuel declined week over week for van (-1.2%) and reefer (-1.3%), while flatbed spot rates saw a slight increase (+0.2%). Despite WoW drops for van and reefer, YoY spot rates remain substantially higher across all trailer types, with van up 33.1%, reefer up 31.6%, and flatbed up 32.5%. Meanwhile, contract rates rose 19% to 22% year over year across all trailer types. Additionally, diesel prices fell slightly to $6.29 per gallon, bringing the average fuel surcharge to 85 cents per mile.

Three line charts of truckload spot and contract rates per mile, 2020 to late 2026, with gray bars for spot rate year-over-year change. Spot rates spiked in 2021–22, fell through 2023–25, then surged in 2026. As of Oct 26, week over week spot rates fell 1.1% for van and 1.2% for reefer but rose 0.2% for flatbed; year over year spot rates are up 33.1%, 31.6% and 32.5%, and contract rates up 21.8%, 18.7% and 20.4%.

Manufacturing and consumer demand are growing, but face inflation headwinds

US manufacturing expanded in October as the ISM PMI rose to 55.5, well above the 50.0 expansion threshold. However, input price pressures persist, as the Prices Index remained high at 75.2, indicating continued inflation in input costs. Similarly, Real goods spending expanded 0.8% QoQ in Q3 and 2.3% YoY. But with real disposable income up only 1.0% YoY, consumers are cutting their savings to fund purchases, pulling the personal saving rate down to 3.8%—its lowest level since October 2022.

Line chart titled "Consumer spending grew faster than income at the expense of savings," tracking real goods spending and real disposable income (indexed to 2019) plus the personal saving rate from 2017 to 2026. All three spike around 2020–2021. Afterward, goods spending climbs to about 128 while income rises more slowly to about 118. The saving rate falls from pandemic highs near 20% to about 3.8% at the end of the series.

Expect a spike in spot rates this peak season

Peak season typically begins in late November, bringing significant market tightening across the Northern US—particularly the PNW—while the South and Southeast remain softer outliers. By December, market conditions tighten further, driven by peak demand, holiday capacity reductions, and weather disruptions. This year, expect a sharp spike in spot rates, similar to what happened in the weeks leading up to July 4.

Two side-by-side heat maps of the US titled Seasonal Pressure in November and December, showing historical spot rates relative to the year average on a scale from -20% (blue) to +20% (red). In November, the Pacific Northwest and northern states run hotter, roughly 10–20% above average, while the South and Southeast are cooler, below average. In December, red spreads across most of the North and West, peaking above 20% in the Northwest, with the South near average.

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